Pepin, Kim

Kim M. Pepin

Dr. Kim Pepin is a quantitative biologist focused on developing models for assisting the implementation of wildlife management and disease surveillance/control strategies. The quantitative approaches used involve parameter estimation from data, statistical forecasting and mechanistic mathematical models developed with data.

Dr. Pepin aims to identify drivers of disease transmission, predict disease dynamics in wildlife and livestock populations and assess disease risk at the wildlife-human and wildlife-livestock interfaces. She is also interested in developing mechanistic population models for adaptive management of wildlife populations. Examples of this include: 1) Develop a field-data based model that predicts management strategy parameters, 2) Implement a management strategy according to model predictions and record outcome, 3) Use outcome and changing ecological conditions to update model predictions for next control activity, and 4) Repeat #2 and #3 multiple times.).

NWRC Program: Feral swine population and disease management

Current Research

  • Transmission dynamics of avian influenza in poultry
  • Estimation of transmission and immunity parameters for avian influenza in mallards
  • Adaptive management of feral swine
  • Disease ecology of feral swine populations
  • Quantitative risk assessment of feral swine diseases to livestock and humans
  • Spatial spread and management of vector-borne diseases


PhD, University of Idaho “Mechanisms of viral adaptation”, 2006
BSc, University of British Columbia, Ecology, 1998

Department of Biology, Colorado State University

International Experience
China (avian influenza)
Brazil (dengue fever)

Recent Publications


Pepin, K.M., S.L. Kay, B.D. Golas, S.S. Shriner, A.T. Gilbert, R.S. Miller, A.L. Graham, S. Riley, P.C. Cross, M.D. Samuel, M.B. Hooten, J.A. Hoeting, J.O. Lloyd-Smith, C.T. Webb, and M.G. Buhnerkempe. 2017.Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales. Ecology Letters.  doi: 10.1111/ele.12732


Lavelle, M.J., S.L. Kay, K.M. Pepin, D.A. Grear, H. Campa III, and K.C. VerCauteren. 2016. Evaluating wildlife-cattle contact rates to improve the understanding of dynamics of bovine tuberculosis transmission in Michigan, USA. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 135:28-36.  doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.10.009

Pepin, K.M., A.J. Davis, J. Beasley, R. Boughton, T. Campbell, S.M. Cooper, W. Gaston, S. Hartley, J.C. Kilgo, S.M. Wisely, C. Wyckoff, and K.C. VerCauteren. 2016. Contact heterogeneities in feral swine: Implications for disease management and future research. Ecosphere 7(3):e01230.  doi: 10.1002/ecs2.1230  

Pepin, K.M. and K.C. VerCauteren. 2016. Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species. Scientific Reports 6:25150.  doi: 10.1038/srep25150

Walter, K.S., K.M. Pepin, C.T. Webb, H.D. Gaff, P.J. Krause, V.E. Pitzer, and M.A. Diuk-Wasser. 2016. Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes. Proceedings of the Royal Society B:  Biological Sciences 283(1832): 20160834.  doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0834     


Lavelle, M.J., C.I.I.I. Henry, K. LeDoux, P.J. Ryan, J.W. Fischer, K.M. Pepin, C.R. Blass, M.P. Glow, S.E. Hygnstrom, and K.C. VerCauteren. 2015. Deer response to exclusion from stored cattle feed in Michigan, USA. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 121(1-2):159-164. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.06.015

Pepin, K.M., C.B. Leach, C. Marques-Toledo, K.H. Laass, K.S. Paixao, A.D. Luis, D.T.S. Hayman, N.G. Johnson, M.G. Buhnerkempe, S. Carver, D.A. Grear, K. Tsao, A.E. Eiras, and C.T. Webb. 2015. Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities. Parasites & Vectors 8(98).  doi: 10.1186/s13701-015-0659-y


Pepin, K.M., E. Spackman, J.D. Brown, K.L. Pabilonia, L.P. Garber, J.T. Weaver, D.A. Kennedy, K.A. Patyk, K.P. Huyvaert, R.S. Miller, A.B. Franklin, K. Pedersen, T.L. Bogich, P. Rohani, S.A. Shriner, C.T. Webb, and S. Riley. 2014. Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 113(4):376-397.  doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.11.011.


Pepin KM, Riley S, & Grenfell BT. Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves. Epidemiology & Infection 141:366.

Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets. PLoS One 8:e56157.

Pepin KM, Marques-Toledo C, Scherer L, Morais MM, Ellis B, Eiras AE. Cost-effectiveness of a novel system of mosquito surveillance and control: MI-dengue. Emerging Infectious Diseases 19:542.

Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Smith GJ, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Riley S, & Guan Y. Multiannual patterns of influenza A transmission in Chinese live-bird market systems. Influenza & Other Respiratory Viruses 7:97.

Abdo Z, Stein M, Wojtowicz A & Pepin KM. The ABC's of experimental evolution. ISRN Computational Biology Article ID: 467943.


Pepin KM, VanDalen KK, Mooers NL, Ellis JW, Sullivan HJ, Root JJ, Webb CT, Franklin AB, Shriner SA.. Quantification of heterosubtypic immunity between avian influenza subtypes H3N8 and H4N6 in multiple avian host species. Journal of General Virology 93:2575.

Pepin KM, Eisen RJ, Mead PS, Piesman J, Fish D, Hoen AG, Barbour AG, Hamer S, Diuk-Wasser MA.. Geographic variation in the relationship between human Lyme disease incidence and the density of infected host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the Eastern US.American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 86:1062.


Pepin KM, Lass S, Pulliam JRC , Read AF, & Lloyd-Smith JO. Identifying genetic markers of adaptation for surveillance of viral host jumps. Nature Reviews Microbiology 8: 802.

Pepin KM, Volkov I, Banavar JR, Wilke CO, & Grenfell BT. Phenotypic Differences in Viral Immune Escape Explained by Linking Within-Host Dynamics to Host-Population Immunity. Journal of Theoretical Biology 265: 501.

Steinmeyer S, Wilke CO, & Pepin KM. Methods of modeling viral disease dynamics across the within- and between-host scales: The impact of virus dose on host population immunity. Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365: 1931.

Volkov I, Pepin KM, Lloyd-Smith JO Banavar JR & Grenfell BT. Synthesizing within-host and population level selective pressures on viral populations: the impact of adaptive immunity on viral immune escape. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 7: 1311.



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