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Impact Assessment

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Impact Assessment
Hurricane Floyd in North Carolina
October 1999

Summary:

Sixty-six (66) counties in North Carolina were declared disaster areas due to the flooding and other damage caused by Hurricane Floyd;

Ÿ Ninety-nine percent (99%) of North Carolina’s hog inventory was housed in the 66 affected counties. Ninety-one percent (91%) of the state’s annual turkey production and 76% of the state’s annual broiler production take place in the affected counties;

Ÿ To date no widespread animal or human disease outbreaks have occurred;

Ÿ The damage caused by the hurricane will not have an adverse impact on APHIS VS’ accomplishment of its eradication and control program goals;

Ÿ At the local level, hurricane damage has been devastating; the North Carolina Department of Agriculture estimates that 15% of the state’s total farms (both crop and livestock) could go out of business;

Ÿ The impact on national production, trade and consumer prices for hogs, turkeys, broilers, cattle and dairy products will be negligible;

Ÿ Facilities licensed by APHIS, Animal Care report no need for assistance;

Ÿ The nationwide availability of biologics is expected to be unaffected by the flooding.

Hurricane Floyd hit the Eastern seaboard of the United States on September 16th causing damage in a number of states. North Carolina suffered the most severe damage with sixty-six (66) of the state’s 100 counties being declared disaster areas. Of these 66 counties, 13 were particularly hard hit: Beaufort, Craven, Duplin, Edgecombe, Greene, Halifax, Jones, Lenoir, Nash, Pamlico, Pitt, Wayne, and Wilson. This report examines the animal health, production and trade impacts associated with the damage caused by Floyd.

The situation in North Carolina continues to develop. Up-to-date information is being posted by state agencies, university departments, and other organizations on the world wide web. Some of the most useful sites are:

NC Division of Emergency Management: www.state.nc.us/hurricane/hurricane.htm

NC Department of Health and Human Services: www.dhhs.state.nc.us/floyd.htm

NC Dept of Environment & Natural Resources: www.ehnr.state.nc.us/EHNR/floyd/index.htm

NC Department of Agriculture: www.agr.state.nc.us/stats/floydinfo.htm

Hurricane Floyd Situation Reports: www.state.nc.us/hurricane/emisreports.htm

NC Cooperative Extension’s Disaster Response www.ces.ncsu.edu/disaster

American Veterinary Medical Association: www.avma.org



Prepared by: Center for Emerging Issues, Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA



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Background

North Carolina Livestock and Poultry Production and Trade Statistics

North Carolina leads the nation in turkey production, accounting for 18% of US production. North Carolina is 2nd in pig production, with 16% of total US production. The state ranks 9th in broiler production, accounting for 9% of the total. In terms of cattle inventories, North Carolina has only 1% of the nation’s beef cows and less than 1% of milk cows. Duplin and Sampson counties are the number 1 and 2 hog and turkey producing counties, respectively, in the entire United States (Okum, Jan 1999).

Fifty-three percent (53%) of North Carolina’s 59,000 farms are located in the 66 affected counties, 9% in the 13 hardest hit counties. A county by county list of livestock and poultry inventories and annual production estimates is given in the appendix table.

Because pig production is concentrated in eastern North Carolina, 99% of the state’s hog inventory is located in the affected area, 45% percent in the 13 hardest hit counties.
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The affected area accounts for 91% of the state’s annual production of turkeys and 76% of its annual production of broilers. The 13 hardest hit counties account for 40 and 15%, respectively. Fifty-five percent (55%) of the state’s beef cow inventory and 32% of its milk cow inventory are located in the affected area. The 13 hardest hit counties house 7% of the beef cows and none of the milk cows.
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The affected area accounts for 99% of North Carolina’s livestock and poultry production value. The hardest hit counties account for 34% of the production value.

North Carolina is an important contributor to US exports of livestock and poultry products. The state ranks 3rd in the nation in the value of poultry and poultry products exported, accounting for 11% of US poultry exports. It ranks 12th in exports of other live animals and meat, with nearly 3% of total exports. Within NC, both of the above commodity groups are among the state’s top 5 agricultural exports. Poultry and poultry products ranks 2nd, after tobacco, and live animals and meat ranks 5th in terms of value of exports. In Duplin county, the leading pig and turkey producing county, 4 of the 10 largest manufacturers export poultry products or animal feeds.

North Carolina exports of livestock, poultry, and products

Commodity
Estimated Value of North Carolina Exports, FY 1988 ($ million)
North Carolina Rank Among U.S. States
Total Value of U.S. Exports FY 1988 ($ million)
North Carolina Export Value as % of Total US Value
Live animals and meat, excluding poultry
Poultry and products
Source: USDA, ERS

Other North Carolina Livestock and Poultry Related Industries

There are a total of 37 livestock auction markets in North Carolina, 20 of which are in the affected area.
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North Carolina’s food and kindred products manufacturing sector which includes meat packing plants, dairy products processing, feed mills, pet food manufacturers, and other food manufacturing businesses, employees over 55,000 people ranking it as the 5th largest employer in the state (North Carolina Department of Commerce). North Carolina’s 505 manufacturers represent 2% of the food and kindred products manufacturers in the US. Approximately 73% of North Carolina’s food and kindred products manufacturers are located in the affected area, 15% in the 13 hardest hit counties.
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Over half of North Carolina’s food and kindred products employees work in meat or poultry slaughter facilities. North Carolina’s 136 facilities represent 4% of the meat and poultry slaughter facilities in the United States. Approximately 75% of North Carolina’s slaughter facilities are located in the affected area, 14% in the 13 hardest hit counties.

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Aquaculture and Fisheries

North Carolina’s aquaculture industry raises trout, catfish, hybrid striped bass, crawfish, ornamental fish, baitfish, and softshell crab. Production statistics for 1998 are provided in the table below. Beaufort, Martin, and Sampson counties, all affected by Floyd, are the principal catfish producing counties. Graham, Haywood, McDowell, Macon, Swain, Transylvania, and Yancey are the principal trout producing counties. Most of those counties were affected by Floyd. Beaufort county is the leading county for hybrid striped bass production.

North Carolina Freshwater Aquaculture Production, 1998

Species
Producers
Pounds
Estimated Value
Trout
Catfish
Hybrid Striped Bass
Crawfish
Ornamental Fish, Baitfish, Plants
Softshell Crab
Source: North Carolina Department of Agriculture

Nearly 300 individuals hold leases from the North Carolina Marine Fisheries to raise shellfish on the ocean bottom. In 1997, these leaseholders raised clams worth $523,422 and oysters worth $236,234 (North Carolina Department of Agriculture).

North Carolina’s commercial fishing industry accounted for 2% of the total US domestic landings in 1998 (US Department of Commerce, National Marine Fisheries Service).

Other Facilities

Approximately 65% of North Carolina’s 81 animal care facilities are located in the affected counties.
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Impacts

Health concerns

Flooding of the severity associated with Floyd brings with it the potential for animal and public health issues. Past severe flood events in the United States have not resulted in widespread outbreaks, however. The four major areas of concern are listed below.

Ÿ Water contaminated with bacteria, parasites, or chemicals which might lead to diarrheal and other diseases caused by organisms such as Leptospira, Escherichia coli, Salmonella, Giardia, Camplobacter, and Cryptosporidium parvum.

Ÿ Animal feed or human food contaminated with bacteria, parasites, or mycotoxins which might also lead to diarrheal and other diseases. Botulism as well as Escherichia coli, and Salmonella could result from consumption of contaminated feed or food.

Ÿ Disturbance of organisms living in the soil such as those causing blackleg and anthrax.
Ÿ Vectors which might spread vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, eastern and western equine encephalomyelitis, equine infectious anemia, St. Louis encephalitis, vesicular stomatitis, erysipelothrix, and tularemia.

Ÿ Molds and fungi growing on structures and equipment which may lead to respiratory problems.

To date no widespread health problems have occurred in North Carolina. Factors contributing to this lack of widespread problems are listed below.

Ÿ Carcass disposal efforts removed a potential disease source;

Ÿ North Carolina is not among the states recognized as an "incubator area" for anthrax;

Ÿ Bluetongue and EIA are considered to be endemic in North Carolina and EEE is found annually in the state. Producers, therefore, are knowledgeable about prevention measures for these diseases. Horse owners have been advised to vaccinate their animals for EEE;

Ÿ Mosquitoes which flourish in floodwaters are generally not the best hosts for disease-causing organisms (CDC). Forty sentinel chicken flocks scattered across North Carolina’s coastal plain have not revealed any evidence of St. Louis Encephalitis and levels of EEE found were at normal levels within the state for this time of year. The public and livestock owners have been encouraged to take steps to reduce their own and their animals exposure to mosquitoes. Mosquito spraying was scheduled to begin the week of October 4th in a number of counties.

Eradication and control program issues

Pseudorabies - Prior to Hurricane Floyd, North Carolina had 4 herds under quarantine due to PRV. All 4 herds have since tested negative and, as of October 1999, there are no further quarantined herds in North Carolina. Since April 1999, North Carolina has required that swine imported into the state come from herds that test negative for pseudorabies. No significant increase in hog prices, which might have affected the APEP program, is expected to result from the flood.

Equine infectious anemia - North Carolina requires that all equine 9 months and older have a negative EIA test prior to entry into the state. In a new ruling, North Carolina will now also require EIA testing prior to sale, exhibition, or assembly at public places. Because EIA is vector-borne, flooding may increase the number of vectors and thus exposure. The new ruling, however, can be expected to mitigate spread.

Brucellosis - North Carolina has been free of cattle brucellosis since 1984, and free of swine brucellosis since 1990. Surveillance activities up until now have included testing breeding cattle at markets, and slaughter sampling of cows and bulls over 2 years of age. The State Board of Agriculture, in September 1999, recommended that testing of cattle for brucellosis no longer be required. Swine are sampled for brucellosis at markets and on farm.

Bovine tuberculosis - North Carolina has been free of bovine TB since 1995. Cattle are inspected for lesions at slaughter.

Livestock and poultry production and trade issues

Livestock and poultry deaths occurred in North Carolina as a result of both the flooding and also stress, lack of feed, and infections in the days after the flood. As of October 6th, the North Carolina Department of Agriculture estimates that livestock and poultry losses have exceeded $12 million. Estimated numbers of livestock and poultry deaths are shown in the table below.

Livestock
Number Lost
Dollar Value
Hogs
Chickens
Turkeys
Cattle
Total

In addition to lost livestock and poultry, the North Carolina Department of Agriculture estimates that farmers (both crop and livestock) sustained over $263 million in damage to farm structures. As a result of the flooding, the North Carolina Dept of Agriculture estimates that 15% of the state’s farms (both crop and livestock) will likely go out of business. USDA, NCRS is compensating farmers for carcass removal and cleaning of houses. USDA, FSA is also providing assistance to farmers. A number of slaughter facilities have been running at less than capacity since the flooding began.

While the livestock and poultry losses within North Carolina are locally devastating, the impact on national production, trade, and consumer prices is forecast by the Economic Research Service to be negligible. Broiler losses in North Carolina represent just 2% of the normal slaughter within the US for 1 week. Even if all of the affected production facilities remain out of production for one cycle (6-7 weeks), national annual production is expected to decrease by less than 1% and prices will increase by less than one tenth of a cent. Turkey losses represent 10% of national slaughter for 1 week. A decrease in national annual production of 2 tenths of 1% will result if affected production facilities remain out of production for one cycle (10-16 weeks). The associated price increase will be at most ½ cent per pound. No measurable decrease in national hog or cattle production is expected.

Aquaculture and fisheries production issues

The North Carolina Department of Agriculture reports that aquaculture producers raising finfish suffered negligible damage from the flooding. There was no infiltration of contaminated water into the facilities. Shellfish growers did experience some losses due to sediment and drops in salinity.

As of October 6th, the North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries has opened most of North Carolina’s coastal waters to fishing. Extensive testing of the water has indicated that it is safe to harvest all types of shellfish.

Animal care and biologics production issues

APHIS, Animal Care has checked with licensed facilities in the affected area. Thus far none of the facilities reports needing assistance. APHIS’ Center for Veterinary Biologics is in the process of checking with licensed facilities in the affected areas of North Carolina. CVB currently expects no problems in the national availability of biologics as most of the items produced in North Carolina are also produced in other states.

If you have questions or comments about this report, please contact either Chris Kopral at (970) 490-7819 or Carol Tuszynski at (970) 490-7893.

Appendix
North Carolina Production Statistics by County
County Farms 1997, incl crops Hogs & Pigs, Dec 1, 1997 inventory Broilers Produced 1997 Turkeys Produced 1997 Beef Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Milk Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Value of Production

1996** ($1,000)

Alamance 731 1,600 2,000,000 * 9,300 3,000 21,236
Anson 442 55,000 17,000,000 2,100,000 5,,400 * 94,668
Beaufort 385 102,000 * * 500 * 24,452
Bertie 371 45,000 21,700,000 * 800 * 56,642
Bladen 553 750,000 5,800,000 800,000 2600 * 146,649
Brunswick 213 77,000 * * 1,000 * 16,019
Camden 76 4,600 * * 0 * 1,071
Carteret 101 2,000 * * 0 * 1,034
Caswell 564 2,400 * * 5,100 * 3,510
Chatham 956 7,600 41,000,000 * 16,600 2,000 117,717
Chowan 151 15,000 2,000,000 * 500 * 7,857
Columbus 884 256,000 * * 4,800 * 44,141
Craven 277 108,000 * * 1,100 * 21,634
Cumberland 433 123,000 * 800,000 2,600 * 34,501
Currituck 86 4,300 * * 0 * 2,915
Dare 9 * * * 0 * 111
Davidson 929 2,000 4,000,000 * 7,300 2,100 21,480
Duplin 1,224 2,034,000 34,000,000 10,560,000 6,500 * 602,050
Durham 159 * * * 1,500 * 1,660
Edgecombe 315 160,000 10,000,00 0 * 2,200 * 38,747
Forsyth 621 * * * 3,600 400 3,774
Franklin 524 18,500 3,000,000 * 5,200 * 21,896
County Farms 1997, incl. crops Hogs & Pigs, Dec 1, 1997 inventory Broilers Produced 1997 Turkeys Produced 1997 Beef Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Milk Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Value of Production

1996** ($1,000)

Gates 147 30,000 5,000,000 * 600 * 18,220
Granville 637 2,500 0 * 6,400 1,000 6,528
Greene 313 390,000 5,000,000 1,500,000 1,200 * 92,638
Guilford 920 10,000 0 * 6,500 2,100 12,606
Halifax 339 89,000 6,000,000 * 5,000 * 31,568
Harnett 626 78,000 15,500,000 * 4,800 * 50,560
Hertford 169 72,000 11,000,000 * * * 30,209
Hoke 162 123,000 1,500,000 * 800 * 20,684
Hyde 100 10,000 0 * * * 1,496
Johnston 1,216 206,000 5,000,000 1,300,000 7,300 * 54,775
Jones 154 253,000 0 * 600 * 49,570
Lee 311 3,900 5,300,000 * 1,800 * 12,595
Lenoir 447 316,000 3,400,000 2,900,000 1,800 * 87,140
Martin 389 11,000 5,000,000 * 1,600 * 12,529
Montgomery 256 23,000 16,200,000 * 3,200 * 49,437
Moore 683 42,000 37,000,000 * 4,900 * 148,861
Nash 472 89,000 13,000,000 * 4,700 * 50,658
New Hanover 62 * * * * * 371
Northamp- ton 342 142,000 10,000,000 * 1,700 * 53,640
Onslow 369 145,000 * 3,000,000 1,200 * 62,681
Orange 485 8,000 * * 6,000 2,500 17,704
Pamlico 67 2,500 * * * * 931
Pasquotank 174 4,100 * * * * 1,282

County Farms 1997, incl crops Hogs & Pigs, Dec 1, 1997 inventory Broilers Produced 1997 Turkeys Produced 1997 Beef Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Milk Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Value of Production

1996** ($1,000)

Pender 283 270,000 1,800,000 1,200,000 * * 59,631
Perquimans 202 12,000 7,000,000 * 800 * 15,944
Person 401 12,600 * * 4,100 * 4,769
Pitt 474 301,000 6,800,000 * 2,700 * 72,048
Randolf 1,366 33,000 50,000,000 * 16,100 4,900 146,764
Richmond 251 54,500 20,000,000 400,000 1,500 * 40,398
Robeson 1,004 328,000 16,100,000 650,000 2,600 * 108,547
Rockingham 780 5,600 * * 4,600 1,200 6,926
Rowan 779 3,200 500,000 * 10,100 3,400 22,980
Sampson 1,186 1,776,000 6,100,000 10,400,000 8,400 * 509,473
Scotland 123 133,000 7,500,000 * * * 32,634
Stanley 558 1,600 6,100,000 1,940,000 9,500 800 47,056
Stokes 926 4,500 * * 4,300 * 5,598
Tyrrell 83 39,000 * * * * 4,644
Union 1,142 4,1000 72,000,000 5,400,000 13,800 600 269,650
Wake 772 2,700 * * 3,700 * 6,167
Warren 282 40,000 3,450,000 * 5,000 900 19,441
Washington 203 73,000 6,000,000 * 700 * 25,969
Wayne 827 529,000 17,500,000 5,980,000 4,200 * 231,152
Wilson 385 75,500 3,000,000 * 1,200 * 13,767
Vance 232 * * * 1,400 * 1,113
Total of Affected Counties 31,103 9,553,200 503,250,000 48,930,000 231,400 24,900 3,795,118
County Farms 1997, incl crops Hogs & Pigs, Dec 1, 1997 inventory Broilers Produced 1997 Turkeys Produced 1997 Beef Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Milk Cows Jan 1, 1998 inventory Value of Production

1996** ($1,000)

Approx. Total of State 59,000 9,600,000 665,000,000 53,500,,000 422,000 78,000 3,842,945
% of Total from Affected Counties 53% 99% 76% 91% 55% 32% 99%
Total US 2,190,510 61,158,000 7,760,260, 000 301,251,000 33,885,000 9,199,000 60,881,056
% of US Total from NC 3% 16% 9% 18% 1% <1% 6%
* Fewer than:

500 hogs & pigs

200,000 broilers

300,000 turkeys

200 beef or milk cows

In some cases information is not published to avoid disclosing individual operations.

**This includes cash receipts for hogs and cattle, and value of production for broilers and turkeys.

Note: County-level data are the latest available. State totals are available for 1998 (Jan 1, 1999) and did not change significantly between 1997 and 1998. It is, therefore, assumed that county-level information also did not change appreciably.

Source: North Carolina Dept. of Agriculture; US Dept. of Commerce Census of Agriculture; USDA, NASS



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