|USDA - APHIS - Wildlife Damage
National Wildlife Research Center (NWRC)
Kim M. Pepin, Quantitative Research Biologist
Address: 4101 Laporte Avenue, Fort Collins CO 80521-2154
Program: Feral swine population and disease management
I am is a quantitative biologist that develops models for assisting the implementation of wildlife management and disease surveillance/ control strategies. The quantitative approaches I use involve parameter estimation from data, statistical forecasting and mechanistic mathematical models developed with data. I aim to identify drivers of disease transmission, predict disease dynamics in wildlife and livestock populations and assess disease risk at the wildlife-human and wildlife-livestock interfaces. I am also interested in developing mechanistic population models for adaptive management of wildlife populations (i.e., 1) Develop a field-data based model that predicts management strategy parameters, 2) Implement a management strategy according to model predictions and record outcome, 3) Use outcome and changing ecological conditions to update model predictions for next control activity, 4) Repeat 2 and 3 multiple times.).
Expertise Keywords: Disease transmission models, dynamic population models, statistical models, zoonoses, viral adaptation
Taxonomic Groups of Interest: Avian and swine influenza viruses, other pathogens of swine, Borrelia burgdorferi (agent of Lyme disease), dengue viruses
Areas of Expertise: Quantitative biology, Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, Disease dynamics
- Transmission dynamics of avian influenza in poultry
- Estimation of transmission and immunity parameters for avian influenza in mallards
- Adaptive management of feral swine
- Disease ecology of feral swine populations
- Quantitative risk assessment of feral swine diseases to livestock and humans
- Spatial spread and management of vector-borne diseases
PhD, University of Idaho “Mechanisms of viral adaptation”, 2006
BSc, University of British Columbia, Ecology, 1998
Department of Biology, Colorado State University
China (avian influenza)
Brazil (dengue fever)
Pepin KM, Riley S, & Grenfell BT. Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves. Epidemiology & Infection 141:366.
Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Guan Y, Riley S. Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets. PLoS One 8:e56157.
Pepin KM, Marques-Toledo C, Scherer L, Morais MM, Ellis B, Eiras AE. Cost-effectiveness of a novel system of mosquito surveillance and control: MI-dengue. Emerging Infectious Diseases 19:542.
Pepin KM, Wang J, Webb CT, Smith GJ, Poss M, Hudson PJ, Hong W, Zhu H, Riley S, & Guan Y. Multiannual patterns of influenza A transmission in Chinese live-bird market systems. Influenza & Other Respiratory Viruses 7:97.
Abdo Z, Stein M, Wojtowicz A & Pepin KM. The ABC's of experimental evolution. ISRN Computational Biology Article ID: 467943.
Pepin KM, VanDalen KK, Mooers NL, Ellis JW, Sullivan HJ, Root JJ, Webb CT, Franklin AB, Shriner SA.. Quantification of heterosubtypic immunity between avian influenza subtypes H3N8 and H4N6 in multiple avian host species. Journal of General Virology 93:2575.
Pepin KM, Eisen RJ, Mead PS, Piesman J, Fish D, Hoen AG, Barbour AG, Hamer S, Diuk-Wasser MA.. Geographic variation in the relationship between human Lyme disease incidence and the density of infected host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the Eastern US.American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 86:1062.
Pepin KM, Lass S, Pulliam JRC , Read AF, & Lloyd-Smith JO. Identifying genetic markers of adaptation for surveillance of viral host jumps. Nature Reviews Microbiology 8: 802.
Pepin KM, Volkov I, Banavar JR, Wilke CO, & Grenfell BT. Phenotypic Differences in Viral Immune Escape Explained by Linking Within-Host Dynamics to Host-Population Immunity. Journal of Theoretical Biology 265: 501.
Steinmeyer S, Wilke CO, & Pepin KM. Methods of modeling viral disease dynamics across the within- and between-host scales: The impact of virus dose on host population immunity. Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365: 1931.
Volkov I, Pepin KM, Lloyd-Smith JO Banavar JR & Grenfell BT. Synthesizing within-host and population level selective pressures on viral populations: the impact of adaptive immunity on viral immune escape. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 7: 1311.
Lloyd-Smith JO, George D, Pepin KM, Pitzer VE, Pulliam JRC, Dobson AP, Hudson PJ, & Grenfell BT. Epidemic dynamics at the human-animal interface. Science 326:1362.
Pepin KM, Domsic J & McKenna R. Genomic evolution in a virus under specific selection for host recognition. Infection, Genetics and Evolution 8: 825.
Pepin KM & Hanley KA. Density-dependent competitive suppression of sylvatic dengue virus by endemic dengue virus in cultured mosquito cells. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 8: 821.
Pepin KM & Wichman HA. Experimental evolution and genome sequencing reveal variation in levels of clonal interference in large populations of bacteriophage phiX174. BMC Evolutionary Biology 8: 85.
Pepin KM, Lambeth K & Hanley KA. Asymmetric competitive suppression between strains of dengue virus. BMC Microbiology8: 28.
Pepin KM & Wichman HA. Variable epistatic effects between mutations at host recognition sites in phiX174 bacteriophage. Evolution 61: 1710.
Gomulkiewicz R, Drown DM, Dybdahl MF, Godsoe W, Nuismer SL, Pepin KM, Ridenhour BJ, Smith CI & Yoder JB. Do’s and Don’ts of testing the geographic mosaic theory of coeveolution. Heredity 98: 249
Pepin KM, Samuel MA, & Wichman HA. Variable pleiotropic effects from mutations at the same locus hamper prediction of fitness from a fitness component. Genetics 172: 2047.
Pepin K, Momose F, Ishida N, & Nagata K. Molecular cloning of horse Hsp90 cDNA and its comparative analysis with other vertebrate Hsp90 sequences. Journal of Veterinary Medical Science 63: 115.
Last Modified: December 12, 2013