Cactus Moth (Cactoblastis cactorum) |
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Predictive Modeling for C. cactorum
A risk map was produced by CONABIO (Comisión Nacional Para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad) in Mexico, and is based on herbarium records for Opuntia distributions and C. cactorum locality data from Argentina. The model shows the areas of potentially the greatest impact on Opuntia plant resources to be in East and Central Texas, Southern Arizona and California, and many parts of Mexico. More data are needed to refine the model. (source: Jorge Soberon and Jordan Golubov, CONABIO).
USDA PPQ's Center for Plant Health Science and Technology (CPHST) in Raleigh, North Carolina has been developing modeling to predict what life stages of C. cactorum could occur in various parts of North America based on climatic data throughout the year. They use occurrence and developmental data extrapolated from what is known about C. cactorum along with climatic variables to make these predictions. This illustration is an example of a history map (left) and a probability map (right) produced by the NAPPFAST system, to be used as a survey tool. More data are being gathered to refine the model further.(source: Dan Borchert, USDA, APHIS, PPQ-CPHST).