Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Nigeria, 2/10/2006

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza,

Nigeria , February 10, 2006

Impact Worksheet

Summary: On February 8, 2006, outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 in poultry were reported in three states (Kaduna, Plauteau and Kano) in Nigeria. The first outbreak occurred in a commercial poultry layers farm in Kaduna state, where ostriches and geese were also kept. The avian influenza outbreak in Nigeria was initially detected on February 6, 2006 . This is the first confirmed case of H5N1 in Africa .

In 2004, Nigeria ’s poultry stocks totaled 140 million chickens amounting to < 0.8% of world stocks. As a share of the world’s total production, Nigeria produced 0.8% of egg and 0.3% of poultry meat. In 2003 and 2004, Nigeria exported small amounts of live poultry (7,000 and 4,000 head respectively).

Neither the US , Canada , nor Mexico imported any poultry or poultry products from Nigeria during 2004 or January through November 2005.

How extensive is Avian Influenza in Nigeria, and what was Nigeria’s disease status prior to the outbreak?

On February 8, 2006 outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 in poultry were reported in three states (Kaduna, Plauteau and Kano) in Nigeria ( see map below). These are the first confirmed cases of H5N1 in Africa . The first outbreak occurred in a commercial poultry layer farm in Kaduna state, where ostriches and geese were also kept, and was initially detected on February 6, 2006 . About 50,000 birds were affected. It is still unclear if the outbreak has been triggered by migratory birds or by the trade and movement of poultry or poultry products. To date, no human cases of bird flu have been reported in Nigeria . Nigeria is West Africa ’s most populous nation and the regional center for trade and commerce.

Control measures undertaken include stamping out, quarantine, disinfection of infected premises/establishment, and movement control inside the country.

Source: OIE Disease Information Report, AllAffrica.com

What is Nigeria ’s place in the international market for poultry and poultry products?

Nigeria has a comparatively well developed poultry industry for West African nations. Approximately 40% of the poultry operations in Nigeria are commercial or semi-commercial with 60% being backyard operations. In 2004, Nigeria ’s poultry stocks totaled 140 million chickens amounting to 0.8% of world stocks (Table 1). Nigeria produced about 476 thousand metric tons of eggs and 211 thousand metric tons of chicken meat in 2004. As a share of the world’s total production, Nigeria produced 0.8% of egg production and 0.3% of chicken meat production.

Sources: United Nations FAO, EMPRES WATCH, Highly Pathogenic Avian influenza spread into Nigeria Situation update ( 10 February 2006 )

Table 1: Poultry stocks and production, Nigeria , 2003 and 2004

	2003	2004
	Stocks (1,000 head)	Stocks (1,000 head)	% of World Stocks
Chickens	137,680	140,000	0.8%
	Production (metric tons)	Production (metric tons)	% of World Production
Chicken Meat	201,000	211,000	0.3%
Eggs (Hen)	460,000	476,000	0.8%
Total	661,000	687,000	0.5%

Source: United Nations FAO

During 2004, Nigeria exported 4,000 live chickens valued at $4,000 (Table 2). By quantity and value, the live chicken exports were less than 0.1% of the world’s total. Nigeria did not export any poultry products in 2003 or 2004.

Table 2: Exports of live animal and animal products, Nigeria, 2003 – 2004

2003

2004

% of World in 2004

Quantity

(# head)

Value

(1000 $)

Quantity

(# head)

Value

(1000 $)

Quantity

(# head or mt)

Value

(1000 $)

Live Chickens

7,000

4,000

<0.1

Source: United Nations FAO

What are the US, Canadian, or Mexican imports of poultry or poultry products from Nigeria ?

Neither the US , Canada , nor Mexico imported any relevant poultry or poultry products from Nigeria during 2004 or January through November 2005.

Source: World Trade Atlas

What is the level of passenger traffic arriving in the United States from Nigeria ?

In 2004, 378 air passengers arrived from Nigeria on direct flights. The number includes passengers arriving from Nigeria but not necessarily residents of that country.

As part of APHIS-PPQ’s agriculture quarantine inspection monitoring, 352 air passengers from Nigeria were sampled for items of agricultural interest in fiscal year 2004. No passengers were found to be carrying poultry items of interest. None of these passengers reported that they planned to visit a farm or ranch in the US .

Source: Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, US Department of Commerce, USDA APHIS-PPQ Agricultural Quarantine Inspection databases, Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

CEI’s plans for follow up:

At this time, CEI will continue to monitor this situation, but has no plans to issue additional reports. If you need more information or if you want to comment on this worksheet, you may reply to this message, or contact Elizabeth Williams (970-494-7329) or Kamina Johnson (970-494-7340).