HighlyPathogenic Avian Influenza, Thailand

January 26, 2004

Impact Worksheet

Summary:    On January 23, 2004, the Thai Government confirmed outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in humans and chickens.  HPAI, subtype H5N1, has been confirmed in two human patients and in chickens in two provinces.  Since mid-December 2003, HPAI subtype H5N1 has been confirmed in the Republic of Korea, Vietnam , Japan , and Cambodia .  HPAI in Cambodia was confirmed on January 24, 2004.  Worldwide, human cases have been confirmed only in Thailand and Vietnam , and to date, no human-to-human transmission of subtype H5N1 has been documented.

Thailand is a major exporter of poultry products.  Thailand exported nearly 12 percent of world stocks of duck meat and 4.3 percent of world stocks of chicken meat in 2002.  A majority of Thailand ’s exported chicken meat went to Japan (56 percent) and the European Union (EU; 28 percent).  Japan and the EU have suspended poultry imports from Thailand .

Because Thailand is not considered free of exotic Newcastle disease by the USDA, US imports of poultry or poultry products from Thailand are restricted.  During 2002 through November 2003, the US imported processed shell eggs and egg products, and feathers and down.  These processed products are not a disease transmission risk and are legally imported products.  During this same time period, a small number of live birds were imported.  Live birds are quarantined in US ports prior to clearance for entry into the country, during which time testing for infectious diseases, including avian influenza, takes place.

Swine can play a role in the transmission and epidemiology of avian influenza outbreaks.  Thailand is not considered free of classical swine fever or swine vesicular disease by the USDA and therefore the US did not import any live swine or swine products of risk during 2002 through November 2003.

How extensive is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Thailand , and what was Thailand ’s disease status prior to the outbreak?

The government of Thailand confirmed the occurrence of human and avian cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Thailand on January 23, 2004.  This is the first reported occurrence of HPAI in Thailand .  HPAI, subtype H5N1, has been confirmed in two human patients and in chickens as of January 19, 2004.  Human cases have been reported from Supanburi and Kanchanaburi provinces; the first chicken flock was reported from Supanburi province where 66,350 laying hens on one farm were depopulated.  The outbreak may have began as early as November 2003, when unofficial reports of highly fatal disease outbreaks in poultry appeared in the media.  At that time, the outbreaks were attributed to fowl cholera. 

Since mid-December 2003, HPAI has been confirmed in Vietnam , the Republic of Korea, Japan , and Cambodia .  HPAI in Cambodia was confirmed on January 24, 2004.  As of press time, there were unofficial reports of HPAI in Indonesia as well as concurrent outbreaks of Newcastle disease.  As of January 26, 2004, 23 of Vietnam ’s 61 provinces were affected and 2.9 million poultry stock had died or been destroyed.  HPAI was also documented in Taiwan in December, when subtype H5N1 was isolated from ducks found on the water offshore of Quemoy Island, illegally smuggled from China .  In addition, low pathogenic avian influenza (H5N2) has been confirmed in chickens in two prefectures in Taiwan .

To date, human cases have occurred only in Vietnam and Thailand .  In Vietnam , a total of 7 patients have been confirmed to be infected with subtype H5N1; 6 have died (5 children and 1 adult).  The World Health Organization (WHO) reports no evidence of person-to-person transmission, and WHO laboratories are working to characterize the avian and human viruses from the outbreaks.  For additional information, please see impact worksheets for HPAI in the Republic of Korea, Vietnam and Japan at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/ceah/cei/worksheets.htm.

Source: OIE Disease Information Report; World Health Organization

What is Thailand ’s place in the international market for poultry and poultry products?

Thailand is a major exporter of poultry products.  In 2002, Thailand exported nearly 12 percent of world stocks of duck meat and 4.3 percent of world stocks of chicken meat, but produced and exported relatively small amounts of shell eggs and egg products relative to world production and trade (Table 1).  A majority of Thailand ’s exported chicken meat went to Japan (56 percent) and the European Union (28 percent); the remaining product was exported to other Asian countries, the Middle East and South Africa .  Japan and the EU have suspended poultry imports from Thailand .  Products included in the EU ban on Thai imports included fresh meat of poultry, ratites, wild and farmed feathered game, poultry meat preparations and poultry meat products consisting of or containing meat of the above mentioned species.  Imports of raw material for pet food production and eggs for human consumption destined for the EU have also been suspended.

In 2002, Thailand had 150 million head of poultry, accounting for less than 1 percent of the world stocks of chickens and geese and 2.6 percent of ducks (Table 2).  Thailand produced 2 percent of world stocks of chicken meat, 3.2 percent of duck meat, and 1.4 percent of world egg production in 2002.

Table 1:  Exports of live Poultry and Poultry Products, Thailand , 2001 - 2002

	2001		2002		% of World Exports, 2002
Exports	Quantity	Value (1000 $)	Quantity	Value (1000 $)	Quantity	Value (1000 $)
Live Birds (1,000 head)
Chickens	4,268	4,641	4,432	5,428	0.5%	0.6%
Ducks	12	7	164	55	1.0%	< 1%
Eggs and Fresh or Frozen Meat (mt)
Chicken meat	309,543	538,708	330,381	534,657	4.3%	7.3%
Duck meat	20,191	36,285	22,194	42,252	12.1%	11.9%
Eggs, shell	2,292	2,395	3,968	2,570	< 1%	< 1%
Eggs, liquid, dried	2,564	3,708	3,236	4,311	1.6%	1.4%

Source: United Nations FAO

Table 2: Poultry Stocks and Production, Thailand , 2001 and 2002

Source: United Nations FAO

What are the US imports of live birds or poultry products from Thailand ?

Because Thailand is not considered free of exotic Newcastle disease by the USDA, imports of poultry or poultry products from Thailand are restricted.  From January-November 2003, the US imported processed shell eggs and egg products, and feathers and down (Table 3).  These processed products are not a disease transmission risk and are legally imported products.  The US does import live birds from Thailand ; 5 and 7 live birds were imported in 2002 and 2003, respectively.  Most birds were imported for commercial purposes.  Live birds are quarantined in US ports prior to clearance for entry into the country, during which time testing for infectious diseases, including avian influenza, takes place.

Swine can play a role in the transmission and epidemiology of avian influenza outbreaks.  Thailand is not considered free of classical swine fever or swine vesicular disease by the USDA and therefore the US did not import any live swine or swine products of risk during 2002 through November 2003.

Mexico imported no poultry or poultry products from Thailand .   In 2003, Canada imported a considerable number of products, most of which were processed meat and feathers/down (Table 4).  Also in 2003, Canada imported small amounts of fresh or frozen poultry meat.

Table 3:  US Imports of Live Birds and Poultry Products from Thailand , 2002 – Nov. 2003

Product	2002		2003 (Jan. – Nov.)
	$value (million)	Quantity (dozen or kg)	$value (million)	Quantity (dozen or kg)
Bird eggs not in shell, processed or preserved	0.440	321,668 kg	0.526	382,584 kg
Egg yolks, processed or preserved	0	0	0.008	7,976 kg
Bird eggs in shell, preserved or cooked	0.126	234,055 dzn	0.182	309,126 dzn
Feathers, cleaned and disinfected	0	0	0.029	12,635 kg
Articles of feather and down, processed	0.086	not reported	0.038	not reported
Skins and other parts of birds with feathers or down, processed	0	0	0.022	not reported

Source: World Trade Atlas; VS Import Tracking System

Table 4.  Canadian Imports of Live Birds and Poultry Products from Thailand , 2002 – Nov. 2003

Product	2002		2003 (Jan. – Nov.)
	$value* (million)	Quantity (dozen or kg)	$value* (million)	Quantity (dozen or kg)
Poultry meat and edible offal, fresh, chilled or frozen	0	0	0.001	249 kg
Poultry meat, prepared or preserved	0.868	136,352 kg	5.715	1,029,672 kg
Feathers, cleaned and disinfected	0.764	not reported	0.597	0.597
Skins and other parts of birds with their feathers or down, processed	0	6 kg	0.004	525 kg

*Canadian dollars

Source: World Trade Atlas

What is the level of passenger traffic arriving in the United States from Thailand ?

In 1999, 112,000 passengers arrived in the US from Thailand on direct flights.  However, some of these passengers may have been in transit and may not have originated their travel in Thailand .  A total of 66,848 air passenger arrivals in the US in 2002 reported Thailand as their country of residency.

As part of USDA, APHIS-PPQ’s Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring system, 887 air passengers arriving in the US from Thailand in fiscal year 2002 were sampled for items of agriculture interest.  None these passengers were found to be carrying poultry items that could potentially pose a risk for HPAI.

Source: Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, US Department of Commerce, USDA APHIS-PPC Agricultural Quarantine Inspection database.

Are there any political/trade issues between the US and Thailand ?

The US imported goods valued at $14.8 billion from Thailand in 2002 and exported goods valued at $4.9 billion.  High duties on agriculture and food products are the main impediment to US exports of high-value fresh and processed foods to Thailand .  Thai import duties on agricultural and processed food goods are as high as 55%, and the average tariff rate is 29.6 %.  In addition, there are high import license fees for meat products.  Import regulations are complicated, non-transparent, and inconsistently applied.

(Note: Sources of political/trade information can be limited.  There may be political/trade issues that were not identified)

Source:  National trade estimate report on foreign trade barriers, 2003.

CEI’s plans for follow up:  CEI will continue to monitor the situation and may issue additional reports.  If you need more information or if you want to comment on this worksheet, you may reply to this message, or contact Kathy Orloski (970-494-7221) or Chris Kopral (970-494-7325).