vs vs Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Texas

March 1, 2004

Impact Worksheet

Summary:  A flock of approximately 6,600 broiler chickens in Gonzales County, Texas tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), subtype H5N2 on February 23, 2004.  The event involves 1 poultry farm.  An epidemiological investigation was initiated within a 10-mile radius of the infected property.  No affected commercial poultry flocks are reported.

The last time HPAI was found in the United States was in 1984.  The outbreak affected commercial poultry in both Pennsylvania and Virginia; it was highly pathogenic avian influenza, subtype H5N2.

In 2002, the total number of broilers produced in Texas Agricultural Statistical District 8-N was 79.6 million.  District 8-N includes the county where the event is located as well as 20 other counties.  District 8-N produces approximately 13.5% of all Texas broilers and 0.9% of all US broilers.  The value of broiler production for Texas in 2002 was almost $900 million, which represents about 6.8% of total US broiler chicken production.  The value of US broiler production was $13.5 billion in 2002. 

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates that the value of all poultry and poultry products that were produced and exported from Texas was $123 million in 2002.  This represents 5.4% of the total value of US exports of poultry and poultry products.

______________________________________________________________________________

How extensive is HPAI in Texas, and what was Texas’ disease status prior to the HPAI event?

On February 23, 2004, the USDA, National Veterinary Service Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza, subtype H5N2 in a broiler flock in Texas.  The premises is located in Gonzalez County, Texas, 50 miles east of San Antonio.  The farm’s flock of approximately 6600 chickens was depopulated on February 21, 2004 and remains under quarantine.  No affected commercial poultry flocks are reported. 

Birds raised on the premises were sold to supply live bird markets (LBM) in Houston.  There are five LBM in Houston.  Of the five LBM, two were found to have positive birds and the other three were negative.  All five LBM have been depopulated and cleaned and disinfected.  All poultry establishments within a 10-mile radius of the index case are being sampled and tested.  As of February 27, 2004, premises tested within this radius are negative for avian influenza.

HPAI Texas

The last time HPAI was found in the United States was in 1984.  The outbreak affected commercial poultry in both Pennsylvania and Virginia; it was highly pathogenic avian influenza, subtype H5N2.

The highly pathogenic AI, H5N2 found in Texas is a different strain than the low pathogenic H7N2 strain found in Delaware and the low pathogenic H2N2 stain found in Pennsylvania.  The AI strain affecting the Gonzales County flock (H5N2) is not the same as the highly pathogenic strain (H5N1) which has spread to more than 10 Asian countries.  Past experience with HPAI, subtype H5N2 viruses, have indicated that there is a low threat to public health.

Source: OIE Disease Information Report, USDA Briefing on Animal Health Issues, February 23, 2004, APHIS Press Release ‘USDA confirms highly pathogenic avian influenza in Texas’, Texas Animal Health Commission, News Release

What is poultry production in the affected area?

Table 1 presents Texas broiler production figures broken out by those Texas Agricultural Statistical Districts that produce the majority of broiler chickens in Texas.  Approximately 8.6 billion broiler chickens were produced in the US during 2002, with Texas accounting for 6.8% of that total.  The value of broiler chicken production in Texas was almost $900 million in 2002 and represented about 6.6% of total US broiler chicken production value. 

Table 1.  Broiler production and value, Texas and US, 2002

 

Broilers

  

Location

1,000 Head

% of US

Value $1000

Texas Ag Statistical Districts

      

    District 5-N

422,728

4.9

---

    District 5-S

84,872

1.0

---

    District 8-N*

79,620

0.9

---

    Other Districts

880

<0.1

---

Texas                

588,100

6.8

893,327

US

8,590,180

---

13,434,771

*District where event located, includes 21 counties

Source:  National Agricultural Statistics Service

Georgia , Arkansas, and Alabama are the top three broiler producing states and respectively made up 15, 13.8, and 12.2% of US broiler production in 2002.  The HPAI event in Texas occurred in District 8-N which accounted for 0.9% of US and 13.5% of Texas broiler production during 2002. 

Turkey production in Texas is minimal and there are no turkey production statistics available for Texas.

In 2002, Texas housed about 18.8 million hens and pullets of laying age (Table 2).  As a proportion of the US , Texas represents 5.6% of hens producing table and hatching eggs.  States with the highest numbers of laying hens in 2002 were Iowa (11.2%) and Ohio (9.1%) and those with the largest table egg production were Pennsylvania (8.5%) and Indiana (7.8%). 

Table 2.  Layer inventory and egg production, Texas and US, 2002

 

Hens & Pullets

of Laying Age*

Eggs**

Location

1,000 Head

% of US

Amount

(million eggs)

% of US

Texas Ag Statistical Districts            

       

   District 5-N

4,752

1.4

1,087

1.2

   District 5-S

1,341

0.4

321

0.4

   District 8-N***

8,496

2.5

2,332

2.7

   Other Districts

4,186

1.2

1,034

1.2

Texas

18,775

5.6

4,774

5.5

US

337,380

---

86,698

---

*Includes layers producing both table eggs and hatching eggs.

**Includes both table and hatching eggs.

***District where event located, includes 21 counties

Source:  USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service; USDA, Economic Research Service

HPAI Texas The three Texas districts that produced the most broilers also housed the most laying hens and produced the most eggs.  The district (8-N) that includes the index premises was third in Texas broiler production in 2002 and was first in the state in laying hen population and in the number of eggs produced.  During 2002, about 45% of laying hens in Texas were housed in District 8-N and this district produced about 49% of table and hatching eggs in Texas.  As a proportion of the US , Texas District 8-N accounted for about 2.5 and 2.7% of laying hens and egg production, respectively.

What are total US exports of poultry products and where do they go?

Table 3 indicates that US exports of poultry meat during the January - November 2003 period were valued at about $1.7 billion.  The top 10 destination countries accounted for 72% of total US poultry meat exports in 2003 (Jan.-Nov.).  During this period, Russia was by far the largest export market, followed by Canada and Mexico .  Between 2002 and 2003 (Jan.-Nov.), Mexico’s imports of US poultry meat increased by 30% while Hong Kong’s decreased by 42% causing Hong Kong to be replaced by Mexico as the third largest importer of US poultry meat.

Table 3.  US exports of poultry meat and eggs.

Leading  10

country markets

US exports of poultry meat

($ million)

Leading 10 country markets

US exports of eggs

($ million)

2002

Jan-Nov 2003*

  

2002

Jan-Nov 2003*

Russia

373

356

Canada

46.4

42.8

Canada

267

250

Japan

23.7

18.6

Hong Kong

191

110

Mexico

19.1

21.8

Mexico

174

227

Hong Kong

12.0

8.8

Korea

79

47

Jamaica

10.2

9.5

Japan

70

59

United Kingdom

6.2

8.9

China

43

65

Belgium

5.5

3.2

Guatemala

33

36

Trinidad & Tobago

4.9

3.9

Poland

33

25

France

4.4

3.9

Taiwan

24

28

Brazil

3.6

4.4

  Subtotal

1287

1203

  Subtotal

136.0

124.8

  US total

1,685

1,679

  US total

168.9

161.7

% of US total from top 10 countries

76

72

% of US total from top 10 countries

81

77

* 2003 numbers are only January – November.

Source: USDA FAS Online, US Trade Statistics

US exports of eggs (Table 3) were valued at $162 million in 2003 (Jan.-Nov.).  The top 10 export markets for US eggs accounted for 77% of total US egg exports during January - November 2003.  Canada , Mexico , and Japan were the top three export markets for eggs in both 2002 and 2003 (Jan.-Nov.).

Live poultry exports from the US were valued at $94 million during the January - November 2003 period (Table 4).  The top 10 destination countries accounted for 67% of all US live poultry exports in 2003.  Canada was the top destination for US live poultry exports in both 2002 and 2003 (Jan.-Nov.).  By the end of the January - November 2003 period, Brazil had significantly decreased its live poultry imports from the US and was replaced by China as the second largest live poultry export market.

US exports of miscellaneous poultry products were valued at $157 million in 2003 (Jan.-Nov.), having increased by 48% since 2002 (Table 4).  The top 10 destination countries accounted for 88% of miscellaneous poultry products in 2003 (Jan.-Nov.).  Hong Kong, the top importer of US miscellaneous poultry products, accounted for 62% of all US exports for this category.  Miscellaneous poultry products include edible offal, feathers, and skin.

Table 4.  US exports of live poultry and miscellaneous poultry products

Leading 10 country markets

US exports of live poultry 

($ million)

Leading 10 country markets

US exports of misc poultry

($ million)

2002

Jan-Nov 2003

  

2002

Jan-Nov 2003

Canada

27

23

Hong Kong

84.4

96.9

Brazil

10

4

China

8.8

31.0

Mexico

9

8

Canada

3.0

2.8

China

8

9

Taiwan

2.7

3.1

Thailand

7

7

Japan

2.6

1.3

Egypt

4

1

Bangladesh

1.3

.8

Malaysia

3

4

Mexico

.4

.9

Dominican Republic

3

2

Vietnam

.4

.3

Indonesia

2

3

Italy

.2

.04

Ecuador

2

2

Dominican Republic

.1

.2

  Subtotal

75

63

  Subtotal

103.9

137.3

  US total

104

94

  US total

105.6

156.7

% of US total from top 10 countries

72

67

% of US total from top 10 countries

98

88

Source: USDA FAS Online, US Trade Statistics

What are Texas’ poultry exports?

The USDA, ERS estimates that the value of all poultry and poultry products that were produced and exported from Texas was $123 million in 2002.  This represents 5.4% of the total value of US exports of poultry and poultry products.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

CEI’s plans for follow up:  CEI will continue to monitor the situation and may issue additional reports.  If you need more information or if you want to comment on this worksheet, you may reply to this message, or contact Elizabeth Williams at (970) 494-7329 or Wolf Weber at (970) 494-7222.